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Donald Trump
Started by Alan Partridge




4667 posts in this topic
Walter Sobchak
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08-07-2015, 03:54 PM -
#41
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/...d-dominant

Some truly frightening stuff - the rhetoric on immigrants not too far removed from that of Theresa May though.
Drederick Tatum
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08-07-2015, 06:16 PM -
#42
The fact that all of the are pro life Wow
Monty Oh You
shaun.lawson
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08-07-2015, 06:27 PM -
#43
(08-07-2015, 03:54 PM)Walter Sobchak Wrote: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/...d-dominant

Some truly frightening stuff - the rhetoric on immigrants not too far removed from that of Theresa May though.

It's not that frightening. Why? Because the Republicans have no chance. And Trump running as an independent would turn "no chance" into "even less than no chance", handing the election to Clinton on a plate.

There's an emerging Democratic majority in the US which, with the growing Hispanicisation of the country, will only grow over the decades ahead. No mad ideologically-driven austerity there; instead, they've had a major stimulus package and have recovered very well, regaining lost geopolitical power too.

Compare this with Europe. Youth unemployment levels which are scandalous, completely out of control; austerity in force across almost the entire continent; and in Britain, what would've been viewed as utterly extreme (on immigration, asylum or the welfare state) 5-10 years ago is now 'mainstream'.

In the US, extremist views make the Republicans unelectable. In the UK, extremist views are the new 'centre ground' under the Tories - and it's Labour who are on the run instead. Scary and depressing.
Little Bit Of The Begbie
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08-07-2015, 06:32 PM -
#44
Well said Lawson. America is a right wing nation, but Obama carries the ethnic minorities and women, and Hillary will do the same:
shaun.lawson
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08-07-2015, 06:37 PM -
#45
(08-07-2015, 06:32 PM)Francis Begbie Wrote: Well said Lawson. America is a right wing nation, but Obama carries the ethnic minorities and women, and Hillary will do the same:

Note this from Bernanke on Greece too:

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-berna...and-europe

When I was growing up, the US was right wing, "let it rip" capitalist; Europe moderate and social democratic. Bit by bit, there's a role reversal going on. Europe is becoming even more corporatist and banker-dominated than the US.
Alan Partridge
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08-07-2015, 08:31 PM -
#46
Can't argue with that.

And Europeans have a bit of a tendency to
scoff at America for their views. We don't even realise what we are.
Fire Doinks
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08-08-2015, 08:09 AM -
#47
(08-07-2015, 06:27 PM)shaun.lawson Wrote: It's not that frightening. Why? Because the Republicans have no chance. And Trump running as an independent would turn "no chance" into "even less than no chance", handing the election to Clinton on a plate.

There's an emerging Democratic majority in the US which, with the growing Hispanicisation of the country, will only grow over the decades ahead. No mad ideologically-driven austerity there; instead, they've had a major stimulus package and have recovered very well, regaining lost geopolitical power too.

Compare this with Europe. Youth unemployment levels which are scandalous, completely out of control; austerity in force across almost the entire continent; and in Britain, what would've been viewed as utterly extreme (on immigration, asylum or the welfare state) 5-10 years ago is now 'mainstream'.

In the US, extremist views make the Republicans unelectable. In the UK, extremist views are the new 'centre ground' under the Tories - and it's Labour who are on the run instead. Scary and depressing.

I've heard it argued quite convincingly that Republican values of family, god, social conservatism and the idea of providing for one's self are actually largely representative of hispanic voters. If the party could get beyond their bigoted view of those of hispanic descent then they would likely secure much of that vote based on these principles.

I think that unquestionably has happened with a number of these republican nominees, and I think that Jeb Bush portrays this point exactly. A Mexican wife, governor of Florida which really speaks for itself on this point and at least publicly displays conservative and Christian values. I think it's far from given that 'Hispanicisation' can be considered an automatic gain for the Democrats.

On austerity, I think you're missing the fact that the US maintained a far more diverse economy than any european nation, has a far greater capacity for growth and also recently became a net exporter of oil and gas. I'd argue that these are far more decisive factors in the American fiscal situation rather than any Democratic party decision making.

The only thing more scary than the republican candidates is a Clinton coronation, which to me looks just as dynastic as another Bush and about as dodgy as Putin/Medvedev. Bill is Medvedev in this analogy by the way, apparently Hilldog always wore the trousers.
Fire Doinks
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08-08-2015, 08:18 AM -
#48
(08-07-2015, 08:31 PM)Alan Partridge Wrote: And Europeans have a bit of a tendency toscoff at America for their views. We don't even realise what we are.

Totally agree with this, a position drawn from our own ignorance and unjustified feeling of superiority. Maybe has something to do with us not wanting to acknowledge how we were all pretty much saved by them in the 40s, but that's just my view and not based on anything.
GeoffK1874
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08-08-2015, 08:39 AM -
#49
The man with the stupid hair makes Tony Abbott seem reasonable.

Then again...
Grumblebum
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08-08-2015, 10:56 AM -
#50
(08-08-2015, 08:18 AM)Donald Dank Wrote: not wanting to acknowledge how we were all pretty much saved by them in the 40s

The Russians?
Floyd
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08-08-2015, 07:29 PM -
#51
In the country of the blind, the man with one eye is king.
shaun.lawson
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08-08-2015, 11:57 PM -
#52
(08-08-2015, 08:09 AM)Donald Dank Wrote: I've heard it argued quite convincingly that Republican values of family, god, social conservatism and the idea of providing for one's self are actually largely representative of hispanic voters. If the party could get beyond their bigoted view of those of hispanic descent then they would likely secure much of that vote based on these principles.

I think that unquestionably has happened with a number of these republican nominees, and I think that Jeb Bush portrays this point exactly. A Mexican wife, governor of Florida which really speaks for itself on this point and at least publicly displays conservative and Christian values. I think it's far from given that 'Hispanicisation' can be considered an automatic gain for the Democrats.

On austerity, I think you're missing the fact that the US maintained a far more diverse economy than any european nation, has a far greater capacity for growth and also recently became a net exporter of oil and gas. I'd argue that these are far more decisive factors in the American fiscal situation rather than any Democratic party decision making.

The only thing more scary than the republican candidates is a Clinton coronation, which to me looks just as dynastic as another Bush and about as dodgy as Putin/Medvedev. Bill is Medvedev in this analogy by the way, apparently Hilldog always wore the trousers.

Really interesting post, cheers for this. I agree in part, but dissent more strongly.

Most of Latin America has been dominated by the left for the past 10-15 years; and huge numbers of immigrants to the US are from LatAm. Religious, yes (though not in Uruguayans' or, to a lesser extent, Argentinians' cases); but also expecting the kind of social programmes which developed in Europe after 1945. Social conservatives? Some yes, others (again, more especially from the South Cone: Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and part of Brazil are all more European than South American in attitudes in many ways) no. But more broadly: those who move overseas to a new country and culture are far, far more likely to be open-minded in their attitudes: without it, they wouldn't succeed. That's true of God-fearing Central American immigrants too.

Then consider the massive, overwhelming preference there was throughout Latin America for Obama to beat McCain or Romney: parallelling the rest of the world everywhere except Israel really. If your thesis was correct, that wouldn't have been anything like as much the case - yet it was.

Beyond that: I agree about the US economy, but would question in the strongest terms whether McCain or Romney would've adopted a similar approach. Plainly, especially under pressure from their own caucuses, they wouldn't have done. As for Hillary and Bill: her 'wearing the trousers' didn't stop him being, in most people's eyes, a hugely successful and nowadays very popular President. Not in mine, mind: for all sorts of reasons, I think Bill Clinton is the most overrated US President since the war (most underrated: his predecessor).
This post was last modified: 08-09-2015, 12:01 AM by shaun.lawson.
Little Bit Of The Begbie
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08-09-2015, 12:20 AM -
#53
Dank makes a very good point that the Hispanic vote is up for grabs in America. Although they have predominantly voted Democrat and 2/3 went for Obama in 2008/2012, a few bilingual adverts and a couple of Hispanic-friendly policies were enough for Bush to vastly increase his share of the Hispanic vote in 2004. The future is much less certain, especially with their vote being concentrated in key swing states.
shaun.lawson
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08-09-2015, 01:01 AM -
#54
(08-08-2015, 08:18 AM)Donald Dank Wrote: Totally agree with this, a position drawn from our own ignorance and unjustified feeling of superiority. Maybe has something to do with us not wanting to acknowledge how we were all pretty much saved by them in the 40s, but that's just my view and not based on anything.

Partly, yes. The resentment here when bankrupt Britain wanted more funds from the US to keep things going, but was told "sure - but only if you give that Empire you clearly can't afford up" lasted for generations afterwards.

Beyond that, we also forget that the US is awfully close to an entire bloody continent by itself. We'd never expect people in Lisbon and Moscow to have the same attitudes, yet sneer at archetypal redneck views as though they're somehow representative of all Americans (kinda laughable, when you consider we've not even had a black party leader, let alone President/PM).

But the main reason? Jealousy about whoever the top dog happens to be. 100 years ago, had there been an internet, the kind of things people say about the US would surely have been said with even more force... about the UK.
Fire Doinks
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08-09-2015, 01:09 AM -
#55
(08-08-2015, 11:57 PM)shaun.lawson Wrote: Really interesting post, cheers for this. I agree in part, but dissent more strongly.

Most of Latin America has been dominated by the left for the past 10-15 years; and huge numbers of immigrants to the US are from LatAm. Religious, yes (though not in Uruguayans' or, to a lesser extent, Argentinians' cases); but also expecting the kind of social programmes which developed in Europe after 1945. Social conservatives? Some yes, others (again, more especially from the South Cone: Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and part of Brazil are all more European than South American in attitudes in many ways) no. But more broadly: those who move overseas to a new country and culture are far, far more likely to be open-minded in their attitudes: without it, they wouldn't succeed. That's true of God-fearing Central American immigrants too.

Then consider the massive, overwhelming preference there was throughout Latin America for Obama to beat McCain or Romney: parallelling the rest of the world everywhere except Israel really. If your thesis was correct, that wouldn't have been anything like as much the case - yet it was.

Beyond that: I agree about the US economy, but would question in the strongest terms whether McCain or Romney would've adopted a similar approach. Plainly, especially under pressure from their own caucuses, they wouldn't have done. As for Hillary and Bill: her 'wearing the trousers' didn't stop him being, in most people's eyes, a hugely successful and nowadays very popular President. Not in mine, mind: for all sorts of reasons, I think Bill Clinton is the most overrated US President since the war (most underrated: his predecessor).

What are you basing that view on?

I don't think you can conflate the social improvements of post-war Europe with popular oppinions of El Salvadoran, Honduran and Mexican immigrants to the US. I very much doubt that they went to America with those kind of expectations. If that was the case why weren't they going to countries like Cuba with public healthcare etc?

To be a hispanic voter in US you must already be legally living there, and if there's one thing I know about immigrants it's that they don't particularly think much of the ones that come after them, especially if they arrive illegally. In fact, I'd say that as part of their assimilation they're likely to be more conservative than average.
shaun.lawson
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08-09-2015, 02:33 AM -
#56
(08-09-2015, 01:09 AM)Donald Dank Wrote: What are you basing that view on?

I don't think you can conflate the social improvements of post-war Europe with popular oppinions of El Salvadoran, Honduran and Mexican immigrants to the US. I very much doubt that they went to America with those kind of expectations. If that was the case why weren't they going to countries like Cuba with public healthcare etc?

To be a hispanic voter in US you must already be legally living there, and if there's one thing I know about immigrants it's that they don't particularly think much of the ones that come after them, especially if they arrive illegally. In fact, I'd say that as part of their assimilation they're likely to be more conservative than average.

Oh, I agree on the second point: immigrants' attitudes to later immigrants. But not on the first. How does someone successfully assimilate without being open-minded about where they're moving to?

Meanwhile, it's pretty obvious why none of them would fancy the gig in Cuba tbh. Laugh
shaun.lawson
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08-11-2015, 04:13 PM -
#57
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Don Draper
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01-14-2016, 09:15 PM -
#58




Confirmation that Trump's campaign is, in fact, one giant troll.
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Sterling Archer
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01-14-2016, 09:26 PM -
#59
Warnock

And welcome back
Don Draper
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01-14-2016, 09:47 PM -
#60
(01-14-2016, 09:26 PM)Sterling Archer Wrote: Warnock

And welcome back

Cheers. Took a wee football forum hiatus. Got pulled back in.
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