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'Wings Over TalkHearts' Politics Thread
Started by Sterling Archer




31387 posts in this topic
Billy Butcher
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04-06-2020, 10:19 AM -
Nicola, Queen of Scots going after that traditional union between the French and Scots Savoury
Hung S.J.
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04-06-2020, 10:39 AM -
(04-06-2020, 09:33 AM)Ross Kemp On Spice Wrote: Morgan could be doing his job from home so he is a hypocrite to some extent. He's following the rules though.

Your new god acting like a twit. Wow

How do you know he’s following the rules? You his pal now?
Zizou
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04-06-2020, 10:42 AM -
Grumblebum in one of his moods Warnock
This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 11:10 AM by Chris Benoit.
Hung S.J.
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04-06-2020, 10:43 AM -
(04-06-2020, 10:42 AM)Ross Kemp On Spice Wrote: Grumblebum in one of his moods Warnock

The piers Morgan fad is over and you’re lashing out  Monty Oh Well
This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 11:11 AM by Chris Benoit.
Zizou
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04-06-2020, 10:44 AM -
Naijoy
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04-06-2020, 10:52 AM -
(04-05-2020, 11:59 PM)Grumblebum Wrote: Begbie you’re coming across as a bit of a centrist cuck in all honesty. (Tongue in cheek but still..)

My position for a long time was for starmer to be the electable face of the Corbyn project. This is a little different as he’s at best going to forge a middle way which means diluting a lot of the structural reforms many people desperately need in the pursuit of “electability”. Personally I think the more radical stuff in the manifesto would be the more popular things, people just need a credible guy in a smart suit to give people confidence that it can be delivered.

I will keep me counsel for a year or two and see what Starmer comes up with. I’m really interested but inevitably some of the more reformist policies will be watered down. Arguably at a time when we need imaginative ideas for new systems of governance and radical investment.

“In all honesty...tongue in cheek...but still” Well done on possibly the weediest attempt at a troll ever seen on this forum Monty Chuckle Please do go ahead and explain though, as one of the most boring, idiotic tropes of corbynista social media is their obsession with attacking people who are critical of Corbyn for being “centrist”, and while I do think you’re boring and idiotic, you’re not quite as bad as them Deal with it

(04-06-2020, 08:40 AM)Makween Wrote: Losing them to abstention, where - as you rightly point out - they were before.

'They don't turn out to vote' would be a good argument, strategically if not morally, if the approach I outlined above would pick voters up elsewhere. I don't think it would.

People who make this kind of argument are essentially assuming young/BAME voters will continue voting Labour anyway as there's no option for them - you'd think people would have noticed by now what the outcome was of holding the Scottish, and subsequently northern English, electorates in that kind of contempt.

There is evidence that they’re still there. The British Election Study tells us that even in 2017, there wasn’t this great surge in youth turnout as some reported - it was much the same as it was in 2015 and 2010, between 40 and 50%. Even Ipsos Mori’s figures, which were more generous to the ‘youthquake’, reported an increase in turnout in 2017 that was largely gone by 2019. BAME have remained constant in turnout rates for a few elections, hovering just over 50%, and they do predominantly vote Labour, but the BAME swing away from Labour in 2019 was significant. Corbyn actually did worse amongst BAME voters in 2019 than Ed Miliband did in 2015, so this idea that he brought all these new BAME voters on board is just not borne out in today’s reality.

The big change is in just how much young people have swung to Labour and that is essential to hang on to, but they’ve just had their biggest defeat in decades despite dominating the youth and BAME vote. It’s not enough.
Hung S.J.
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04-06-2020, 10:57 AM -
Tbh I’ve read through you and Mak’s debate and these days I’m too tired to get into it all, but I’m more sympathetic to Mak’s line of thinking and the giddy excitement you have for Starmer is a b it off putting. I’m cautiously curious to see what happens so I’d rather not box myself into a position. He deserves a fair crack at the whip. Labours biggest problem recently has been trying to destroy a leader before they’ve even got started so I won’t be doing that. Good luck to him.

I’m becoming more and more of an EU sceptic so i guess I don’t fall in love with ardent Remainers like others do. But that’s my personal position. There are some very decent ecological and agricultural opportunities to do things differently outside the EU. Shame it’s a Tory Brexit so these won’t be realised.

The land workers alliance produce a lot of good literature on CAP issues and EU energy policy and the untold damage industrial agriculture is causing and the reeprocussions of all of this in the near future.
This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 10:59 AM by Hung S.J..
Cheeky Gnando’s
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04-06-2020, 11:11 AM -
(04-06-2020, 10:57 AM)Grumblebum Wrote: Tbh I’ve read through you and Mak’s debate and these days I’m too tired to get into it all, but I’m more sympathetic to Mak’s line of thinking and the giddy excitement you have for Starmer is a b it off putting. I’m cautiously curious to see what happens so I’d rather not box myself into a position. He deserves a fair crack at the whip. Labours biggest problem recently has been trying to destroy a leader before they’ve even got started so I won’t be doing that. Good luck to him.

I’m becoming more and more of an EU sceptic so i guess I don’t fall in love with ardent Remainers like others do. But that’s my personal position. There are some very decent ecological and agricultural opportunities to do things differently outside the EU. Shame it’s a Tory Brexit so these won’t be realised.

The land workers alliance produce a lot of good literature on CAP issues and EU energy policy and the untold damage industrial agriculture is causing and the reeprocussions of all of this in the near future.


Doesn’t explain why any of it makes me a centrist cuck Jezza

Not sure where you’re getting ‘giddy excitement’ from either. I’ve said he was the best candidate of the field, explained in detail why I thought so when asked, and said he was excellent on Marr, which he was. Hopefully Long-Bailey gets a good position in the shadow cabinet today (and Dawn Butler too pls Sob ), and that he sticks to his campaign policy commitments; I’ll be more encouraged that he will actually make good on his promises that he is a socialist. I have read enough about him and his past to feel like he is probably genuine, but time will tell. One thing I think is clear right away is that the leadership will be far more competent, which is all I ever wanted from Corbyn. His policies were great but his leadership was just hamstring by incompetence. People dying because of welfare reform and nasty Tory policies, man, and he’s standing up in PMQs reading out emails with his specs on Wiggo Warnock
Hung S.J.
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04-06-2020, 11:15 AM -
Corbyn did a lot more than just stand in PMQs with specs on. The way he went on the ground during the Grenfell Tower atrocity was very statesmanlike and showed his good character and some nice leadership. I’m not really interested in sifting through Corbyn’s successes and failures, it’s been done to death.

I already said the centrist cuck comment was tongue in cheek and with a dose of self awareness when using the meme. There was a whiff of it though which is probably why myself and Mak are not on board with all you say.

Starmer in some ways bridges neo-liberalism and aspects of socialism, but from my experience the more power they get the more they are likely to move towards the neo-liberal model. I hope it doesn’t happen and like I said, I’ll wait and see rather than predicting it.

In My opinion the world is moving towards a trajectory where “third ways” and compromising what is needed is not the correct path.
This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 11:19 AM by Hung S.J..
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04-06-2020, 12:10 PM -
(04-06-2020, 11:15 AM)Grumblebum Wrote: Corbyn did a lot more than just stand in PMQs with specs on. The way he went on the ground during the Grenfell Tower atrocity was very statesmanlike and showed his good character and some nice leadership. I’m not really interested in sifting through Corbyn’s successes and failures, it’s been done to death.

I already said the centrist cuck comment was tongue in cheek and with a dose of self awareness when using the meme. There was a whiff of it though which is probably why myself and Mak are not on board with all you say.

Starmer in some ways bridges neo-liberalism and aspects of socialism, but from my experience the more power they get the more they are likely to move towards the neo-liberal model. I hope it doesn’t happen and like I said, I’ll wait and see rather than predicting it.

In My opinion the world is moving towards a trajectory where “third ways” and compromising what is needed is not the correct path.

It was an example to illustrate. For every Grenfell, I could point to plenty of others where his leadership failed, but in the end, the election was a disaster, and if - like me - you believe that the socialist policies were not the problem, it falls on him to a large extent. My single biggest problem with many Corbyn supporters is their inability to understand that criticism of Corbyn isn’t the same thing as centrism. Basically, what you said - ideologically aligned with Corbyn, a socialist agenda, but capable of actually bringing the party/country together and communicating in a way that restores trust.

With the bit in bold, do you see why I’m asking you to explain? Saying effectively “I was joking (but not really)” is unhelpful and doesn’t let me respond to anything specifically.
Hung S.J.
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04-06-2020, 12:15 PM -
(04-06-2020, 12:10 PM)Little Bit Of The Boycey Wrote: It was an example to illustrate. For every Grenfell, I could point to plenty of others where his leadership failed, but in the end, the election was a disaster, and if - like me - you believe that the socialist policies were not the problem, it falls on him to a large extent. My single biggest problem with many Corbyn supporters is their inability to understand that criticism of Corbyn isn’t the same thing as centrism. Basically, what you said - ideologically aligned with Corbyn, a socialist agenda, but capable of actually bringing the party/country together and communicating in a way that restores trust.

With the bit in bold, do you see why I’m asking you to explain? Saying effectively “I was joking (but not really)” is unhelpful and doesn’t let me respond to anything specifically.

Begbie im not interested in Corbyn anymore and before any of you 18 months ago, I said we should stick with Corbyn policy platform with Kier leading the charge. I think we are pretty much in agreement here I just preferred Mak’s tone/framing to yours.

The election was a disaster, I still don’t know why the flagship policy he led with was free broadband. I mean - what the fuck. If you’re going to do populism then do it correctly.

The fundamental flaw with the election was losing the Brexit voters by diluting his stance on EU membership to try and attract middle class liberals which were never going to vote for Corbyn. And to be honest he was forced into that decision - he went against his instincts there.

He should have outlined a comprehensive Norway style Brexit in detail. He would’ve had an answer for everything that Boris couldn’t on the issue of EU.
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Shuto Makino
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04-06-2020, 12:58 PM -
(04-06-2020, 10:52 AM)Little Bit Of The Boycey Wrote: There is evidence that they’re still there. The British Election Study tells us that even in 2017, there wasn’t this great surge in youth turnout as some reported - it was much the same as it was in 2015 and 2010, between 40 and 50%. Even Ipsos Mori’s figures, which were more generous to the ‘youthquake’, reported an increase in turnout in 2017 that was largely gone by 2019. BAME have remained constant in turnout rates for a few elections, hovering just over 50%, and they do predominantly vote Labour, but the BAME swing away from Labour in 2019 was significant. Corbyn actually did worse amongst BAME voters in 2019 than Ed Miliband did in 2015, so this idea that he brought all these new BAME voters on board is just not borne out in today’s reality.

The big change is in just how much young people have swung to Labour and that is essential to hang on to, but they’ve just had their biggest defeat in decades despite dominating the youth and BAME vote. It’s not enough.

You're right to point out that the idea that young (or indeed BAME) voters massively turned out for Corbyn is exaggerated. And you're obviously right that doing well with those demographics isn't enough to win, as 2019 showed (as, for that matter, did 2017 - the results were so much better than expected that it's easy to forget that Labour were up against a horrendous Tory campaign and still lost). Having said that, abandoning the populations that did stick with (or swung to) Labour under Corbyn on the basis that they have nowhere else to go would be every bit as bad - especially when there's no clarity over exactly how to win back the older voters in northern constituencies who left Labour.

Again, it's all conjecture at this stage, and I genuinely do want to give Starmer a fair chance, but for me the inclusion of the likes of Reeves in his shadow cabinet is a concern because it suggests that the strategy for winning those voters back may be to posture as more socially conservative. To me, as well as just not being a direction I want to see Labour going down anyway, I think it'd risk losing the voters who have stuck with Labour without being particularly likely to win those others back - I'm not sure how Labour does win them back, but one thing I am sure of is that Labour will never, for very obvious reasons, be able to outflank the Tories on social conservatism. As Scott hinted above, I think it's aiming towards a centre that no longer exists. It also seems to suggest that Brexit is being read as purely about racism, rather than the structural problems in communities that voted for Brexit. Important to add, though, that it's not just Starmer who will have this issue: I think that Labour can only win by uniting a coalition of voters with very different concerns in a way that might not be possible (i.e. you need people who identify as remainers and people who identify as leavers, students in uni towns, BAME communities, and northern working class communities where the emotional tie people previously had to Labour has now been broken). It might theoretically be possible with an incredibly charismatic leader, able to communicate a genuinely transformative programme in a way that resonates with all of those populations, and a sympathetic media, but I don't think Labour has any of those things - neither of the other candidates would've been better placed to be that leader than Starmer.

I said on here a few times during Corbyn's leadership that I thought 'Corbynism' was a misnomer, which placed too much importance on Corbyn as an individual and not enough on the ideas. I'd stand by that:for me the important thing was for 'Corbynism' to survive beyond Corbyn, and I'm concerned that this is a big setback to it (i.e. the energy won't disappear, but it looks like it's being marginalised within the party). I was and still am prepared to be critical of Corbyn, but think the ideas were good and deserve to survive.

I think you might be getting overly caught up in the politics of personality too, by which I don't mean that you're a massive Starmer fanboy but that your argument here is framed too much around 'who Starmer is' and it being 'inaccurate to say that Starmer is a centrist'. I'd agree with you that Starmer isn't a centrist, but where I disagree is that I'm not convinced that his personal convictions will have as great an influence as you think on how he runs the party - I think he has an essentially technocratic view of politics, and will be willing to compromise on his principles and move towards the centre if his advisers tell him to. His reasons for this will be that he'll genuinely believe that that's the best way to be elected, and that a soft left Labour would be much better for people in this country than the current Tory government - I'd agree with him on the latter point, but I'm not sure that I agree with him on the former.
(08-21-2017, 01:25 PM)i8hibsh Wrote: I AM A LONER BY CHOICE
I AM SINGLE BY CHOICE
I HAVE NO KIDS BY CHOICE

Cheeky Gnando’s
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04-06-2020, 01:44 PM -
Good post Mak. Totally agree with almost all of the first three paragraphs - especially the third - although I’m much less concerned with appointments like Reeves, given the wider strategy of unifying the party, which I think is the priority now.

He’s given RLB education, which is positive, and brought David Lammy in for justice, so key roles going to people who are unequivocally on the left of the party. I’m not worried about Gardiner and Burgon going at this point - they’re problematic for me. Much more surprised and disappointed to see no mention of Butler. Still worthy of the benefit of the doubt at this point. Red Ed back as well jjay

The last paragraph, unsurprisingly I’m not in full agreement on. Insomuch as I wanted Starmer to win because I think he’s best placed to communicate a socialist platform in a credible way, I have recognised that image is important. I don’t think I am overly focused on it, though, and I think I might be the only person in the last few pages who has actually talked about his policies. I’m not sure what you’re basing your view of him as being a technocrat on, though? I’ve focused a little on who he is in order to help show how it’s informed my view of the extent to which I think we can trust his policy intent. I think it is important to look at that for perspective when the “Blairite/centrist” charge is being levelled at him from some quarters. One of the things he said that was important yesterday was that he wants change and it is impossible to try and deal with this crisis in the same way as the banking crisis. It’s an encouraging noise - but just noise at the moment.
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04-06-2020, 01:58 PM -
Begbie. I think it's clear from the first few days that Starmer is not going to communicate a typically socialist platform. A progressive one yes and I'll broadly be on board with it.

But maybe we have different definitions on socialism.
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Shanklands Fivehead
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04-06-2020, 02:43 PM -
Eds back jjay

[Image: CEfnjtRXIAAquy7.jpg]
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Shuto Makino
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04-06-2020, 03:00 PM -
(04-06-2020, 01:44 PM)Little Bit Of The Boycey Wrote: Good post Mak. Totally agree with almost all of the first three paragraphs - especially the third - although I’m much less concerned with appointments like Reeves, given the wider strategy of unifying the party, which I think is the priority now.

He’s given RLB education, which is positive, and brought David Lammy in for justice, so key roles going to people who are unequivocally on the left of the party. I’m not worried about Gardiner and Burgon going at this point - they’re problematic for me. Much more surprised and disappointed to see no mention of Butler. Still worthy of the benefit of the doubt at this point. Red Ed back as well jjay

The last paragraph, unsurprisingly I’m not in full agreement on. Insomuch as I wanted Starmer to win because I think he’s best placed to communicate a socialist platform in a credible way, I have recognised that image is important. I don’t think I am overly focused on it, though, and I think I might be the only person in the last few pages who has actually talked about his policies. I’m not sure what you’re basing your view of him as being a technocrat on, though? I’ve focused a little on who he is in order to help show how it’s informed my view of the extent to which I think we can trust his policy intent. I think it is important to look at that for perspective when the “Blairite/centrist” charge is being levelled at him from some quarters. One of the things he said that was important yesterday was that he wants change and it is impossible to try and deal with this crisis in the same way as the banking crisis. It’s an encouraging noise - but just noise at the moment.

Going to be honest: my earlier posts were based entirely on yesterday's announcements and on the general chat around him prior to him winning the leadership (i.e. the giddiness of the right/centre of the party around him). Agree that RLB and Lammy being in the shadow cabinet are good appointments, as is Miliband, and think your reading of appointments like Reeves as being more about party unity looks like a good one in that context. Also agree about Burgon and Gardiner, although I had a soft spot for Lavery tbh Heh

You're right that I haven't said much about his policies, basically because I felt that his leadership campaign was pretty light on detail: don't think he's really committed himself to much yet. As far as calling him a technocrat, I didn't necessarily mean it as a slur: in some ways it's a good thing to be making appointments based on competence. One issue in Corbyn's leadership was that some people were promoted above their level of ability, based on loyalty to the project. I do think that it means that Starmer will be willing to be swayed by his professional advisers, though.

As you say, it's all conjecture at the moment. A lot of what I've said so far has been based more on who seems to be enthusiastically supporting Starmer than on his own merits, and I really do intend to wait and see what happens before forming any proper judgements. I'd like nothing more than to be proven wrong about him tbh. Agree with Scott that he isn't likely to be a Socialist in any meaningful sense, but I'll happily take a leftish social democrat if it means actually having some chance of getting into power (although again, I'm not sure I see how Starmer or anyone else unites the coalition Labour need).
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(08-21-2017, 01:25 PM)i8hibsh Wrote: I AM A LONER BY CHOICE
I AM SINGLE BY CHOICE
I HAVE NO KIDS BY CHOICE

Cheeky Gnando’s
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04-06-2020, 03:56 PM -
It doesn’t seem like we are all that far apart on the substantive stuff.

The good news is that he’s appointed Jonathan Reynolds, a supporter of UBI, to DWP, RLB in education is good for the free tuition promise, and Red Ed has made a statement showing his commitment to the green new deal - I saw a lot of people were worried that RLB moving to education meant that was dead. I’d see these as encouraging signs.
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04-06-2020, 04:03 PM -
big call to give Ian Murray the shadow Scotland secretary gig Monty Chuckle
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04-06-2020, 04:17 PM -
Aye I decided to ignore that disaster for the purposes of staying positive Laugh The justification is that he’s the only Scottish Labour MP and I suppose it’s a rock and a hard place - either appoint a fucking prat, or appoint someone English (same thing amirite). Either way you’re struggling Billy Broon style.
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Shuto Makino
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04-06-2020, 05:30 PM -
Yeah, can't really appoint anyone else tbf.

Speaking of Murray, either him or Burgon getting more votes as deputy than Dawn Butler would be dreadful. Both of them getting more is Crowe
(08-21-2017, 01:25 PM)i8hibsh Wrote: I AM A LONER BY CHOICE
I AM SINGLE BY CHOICE
I HAVE NO KIDS BY CHOICE




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